Dive Brief:
- Renters are on the move across the country, many of them headed for new cities. While some markets are seeing a far higher share of new renters entering than leaving, others are experiencing the opposite trend, according to a Rent. (formerly RentPath) analysis of its listing service user data for Q3 2022.
- At 38.7%, North Dakota has the highest ratio of renters arriving to renters leaving out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. New Jersey is a close second with a 36.35% ratio of renters arriving to renters leaving, although the state’s gross inbound prospects are over seven and a half times higher than North Dakota’s.
- Illinois leads the nation in out-migration, with a -46.41% ratio of renters arriving to renters leaving, followed by New York at -44.04% These numbers are driven by the states’ biggest metro centers, Chicago and New York City, which are among the top five for out-migration at the metro level.
Dive Insight:
Of the renters looking for new units in high-performing North Dakota, just under one quarter are already North Dakota residents. The second-largest group of prospective North Dakota renters are Minnesota residents and just over 20% come from Illinois, New York, California and Texas.
In a previous Rent. survey, 60% of renters said that they planned to move within the next six months. Rent. attributes this willingness to move to rising rent prices, a high overall cost of living, a historically competitive housing market, food insecurity and a long-term affordable housing shortage.
The pressures and influence of the COVID-19 pandemic are also a factor in 25% of moves, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council’s 2022 Renter Preferences Survey Report as cited by Rent.
States with the highest inbound lead ratios
| State | Leads out | Leads in | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | 10,791 | 24,419 | 38.70% |
| New Jersey | 90,639 | 194,171 | 36.35% |
| Louisiana | 28,425 | 60,000 | 35.71% |
| New Hampshire | 12,445 | 23,783 | 31.30% |
| Mississippi | 19,452 | 35,964 | 29.80% |
SOURCE: Rent.
More than 3 million renters across the country are interested in leaving one region for another, according to Rent.com data. The Northeast and West have a higher share of renters looking to move out than in, while the Midwest and South are seeing an influx of renters.
The South has seen a meteoric rise in popularity over the course of the year. Rent.com attributes this rise to strong growth in two southern states in particular — Louisiana (35.71%) and Mississippi (29.80%).
Metros with the highest inbound lead ratios
| Metro | Leads out | Leads in | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biloxi-Gulfport, Mississippi | 5,359 | 16,583 | 51.15% |
| Huntsville-Decatur, Alabama | 5,626 | 16,184 | 48.41% |
| Madison, Wisconsin | 7,178 | 17,709 | 42.32% |
| Waco-Temple-Bryan, Texas | 5,882 | 14,244 | 41.55% |
| Springfield, Missouri | 8,902 | 21,226 | 40.88% |
SOURCE: Rent.
At the metro level, three of the top five cities for inbound leads are in the South, with the remaining two in the Midwest. Biloxi-Gulfport, Mississippi, leads the pack with a lead delta of 51.15%. Large gateway markets, including Chicago and New York as noted above, fill in the bottom five with lead deltas in the -30% and -40% range.
